Maybe This Would Work (was: For Ian)

Assumptions:

PCR-RT tests are not only useless due to high false positive rates, they are dangerously misleading.

Antigens tests, while having both false positives and false negatives, are much cheaper, easier and more accurate than PCR-RTs.

Covid19 does not target indiscriminately. It is tragically lethal to people over the age of 80, and younger people with diabetes, heart problems, obesity, cancer, immune system disorders, and other comorbidities. The death rate in children rounds to zero, but some children are at risk.

The vaccine saves lives with a healthy risk/reward profile, but the value accrues largely to the least vulnerable group. Older people benefit less from vaccination due to lower immune system function at age. The risk/reward profile for children is an open question, but the risk will have to very low to justify the limited benefit.

A strategy to eradicate a global disease that so far has produced multiple viable mutations in less than six months, by starving it of hosts, with a vaccine that starts at 95% efficacy (i.e. only 5% of the people who would have gotten it, get it post vaccination) and decays to 60-70% in six months is badly flawed, unless your plan to give the entire world boosters every 4 months.

If, hypothetically  you eradicated the disease from a geographic region but without strong immunity, it will return, likely in mutated form.

Lockdowns, social distancing and masking, while likely the best ideas we had at time, failed.

There is natural evolutionary pressure on the virus to mutate to less lethal forms. The vaccine likely puts pressure on the virus to mutate to more lethal forms, while at the same time reducing the pool of potential hosts.

Natural immunity is better and longer lasting than vaccination immunity.

A government bureaucracy, run by career politicians, who arrive at truth via a vote, is not science.

Science is not a consensus. It is a jumble of competing ideas, that get debated and proven, or disproven over time. This is often a slow process, that cannot be hurried much.

Politicians, on the whole, do not understand science, do not care to, are not very trustworthy.

I don‘t know how to achieve this in the real world, but it might work:

Stop using the PCR-RT, except in a clinical environment in concert with other diagnostic tools. Stop blanket testing for “cases”.

Sort demographics into best risk/reward for vaccination, and encourage people to  do it, via education, for their own protection. Risk/reward includes both tiny probability of reasonable  protection with very low risk, and some protection in the highly vulnerable.

Immediately stop the fiction that we can achieve “normalcy”, which isn’t a word but probably means normality, via carpet bombing with vaccines.

Do not vaccinate kids without comorbidites.

Assume the infected/recovered are immune, and do not need vaccination. But monitor for waning natural immunity.

Stop ignoring therapeutics like HCQ, Ivermectin and monoclonal antibodies and others, and aggressively study these things and others in every combination. Go with what works.

Carpet bomb the world with home antigen tests. Encourage anyone at high risk, or living with someone at high risk, to take a quick test if they suspect symptoms or exposure. With positives, take the high risk people to hospital immediately, and let the vaccinated quarantine at home unless they become very ill. Use therapeutics to save lives, both as prophylactics and as early treatment, when they seem to work somewhat.

Stop listening to politicians and career government bureaucrats posing as scientists. Stop lurching from idea to idea, and blaming other for failure of what are actually failed ideas.

Stop the masking, the anti-social distancing, lockdowns, mandates and other “soft” coercion, and return to a thoughtful normality.

Stop focusing on one risk to life at the expense of all others, and understand people die from multiple causes. Save more lives by doing so.

Live. Free. Think.

Mike.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s