How to End Voter Fraud

Lawyers are not going to do it. Courts are not going to do it. Democrats and the media, being all in on it, are not going to do it.

The first thing to understand is who does it, and why. Look backward at the values and behavior of the left over the last 4 years. Not just people you see on tv or read about, but people you know. Form an opinion about how many of them would report a duplicate ballot, ignore a few mismatched signatures or get sloppy with voter rolls. And how many would actually forge boxes of ballots, or pocket a thumb drive.

The left is convinced that they are literally fighting evil  – that they are the good – and they will make life better for everyone if they just had more power over other people. They do not respect the integrity of any system that would, could, bring a evil man like Donald Trump to power. The right, for the most part, just doesn’t want them or anyone to have that much power.

It important to understand https://mikezintel.wordpress.com/2020/11/08/voter-fraud-is-a-myth/ how fraud actually happens. There is no Dept. of Fraud, or Committee to Commit Widespread Fraud, because none is necessary, and these things would be discovered. Occasionally, a truly obviously corrupt thing like changing to mail in ballots at the last moment is necessary, but democrats can count on the press and their extended organization to control the messaging as needed. But for the most part, election fraud is a highly distributed thing. You really only need to signal where and how much is necessary.

We need to borrow from the computer security practice, and game this out. Smart folks need to examine every step of the voting process with exactly the mindset of someone trying to cheat. This needs to be well-documented. For two reasons:

The first is that the system needs to hardened against fraud, and the only way to approach this is the knowledge of exactly how it happens.

The second is that the right needs to leak these documents in ways that make people believe that – finally – they’ve figured out the con, and could engage in the same con, the same way, with the same success themselves.

This would likely do it, and actually cheating might not be necessary.

Nothing else is going to work.

Mike.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Plus ça Change, Plus c’est la Même Chose

For a while I’ve been making the observation that perhaps herd immunity occurs at about 25%- 35% infected. The first dataset to support this was the experience of military and cruise ships.

Today, the best observation is Sweden, for the reason that they (as reported) have performed lower impact mitigations than many other places (i.e. they are not “fixing” it much):


Unfortunately we are not seeing that pattern in many places, at least as measured by a positive PCR-RT test.

Returning to  very popular view in the press, the USA does not fit that pattern:

This is the graph one would choose if they want to tell a story about how badly the USA has managed the pandemic, how our mitigations have been wrong or poorly timed, or how we suffer from our own lack of discipline. And, we want to fit the story to the curve. You construct this graph by plotting the most scary thing, “cases” against time, and then add a scaled deaths line. The scaled deaths line implies to those not paying attention to (frequently omitted) axis values that cases and deaths are … roughly … in the same order of magnitude.

Of course they are not. Not even close. Nor are death rates getting worse. People are still dying though, so total deaths continues to climb.

While this deception is easily discovered, it still common.  I see a variation of this graph 2-3 times / week. The ones from large media outlets do a better job with fonts and colors.

When there is little or no actual correlation between the things being plotted, you can make many stories fit.

With a slight modification, I can make the story that neither masks nor social distancing reduces cases:

What is likely actually going on is that the virus is moving geographically:

I’ve written elsewhere that the PCT-RT is subject to a large number of false positives. If you accept this, then “cases” becomes a terribly misleading indicator of anything. We know that it isn’t a good predictor of hospitalizations or deaths, and is likely much worse as variable in the effectiveness of mitigations.

But what if we use actual deaths to compare approaches. Contrast the USA and Canada, scaled per million people:

The graphs shapes are very similar, which we wouldn’t expect if the mitigations were substantially different, with different outcomes, as is commonly reported and believed. The magnitudes are different, but not dramatically so.

Sweden (again), with little mitigation (scaled/M). Note the magnitude of the peak is on a different scale, and is larger (i.e. the peak was worse):

If we calculate actual cases as the number would result in the actual death rate with a 2% CFR (red), and contrast this what the PCR-RT is telling us (blue). The difference is the number of false positives daily.

Mike.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Forget The Following and Lose Gracefully Like Romney

Maxine Waters calls for impeachment before he takes office
53 congressional democrats boycott of the inauguration
petition urging the electors to vote for Hillary Clinton
RESIST
Russian prostitutes peeing on Trump in bed Obama slept in
Impeachment
Russia stole the election with fb ads
Russian stole the election by modifying vote counts
FBI/DOJ
Impeachment
Mueller/Flynn
White Supremacist
Pussy hat marches
Michael Avenatti
Nick Sandmann
Joy Reid
fb memes and images: Trump as rat, pig, baby, etc. etc.
Racists
Kavanaugh
Iran / WWIII
Homophobes
Ukraine/Logan Act/Impeachment
BLM/antifa
Sexists
defund the police
Cancel culture
Katrinavirus
the “Trump Accountability Project”

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Voter Fraud is a Myth

If you are really, really bored, you might post something somewhere with the phrase “voter fraud” in it.  The actual text of the post doesn’t matter much, unless the post is exactly “these  conspiracy theorists should just read snopes and this study or that study and learn that widespread voter fraud is a myth.

Now you might think that your post might produce the following responses:

“Do you think voter fraud happens?” 
“Where?”
“How?”
“How often?”
“By whom?”
“Does it matter?”
“How would be learn the truth?”
“How could we prevent it?”

You would be wrong.

What actually happens is a surprisingly well-structured and prompt response that makes the first point below, and some or all of the subsequent points:

You are a conspiracy theorist (i.e. gullible and not too smart).
You have no evidence (this is true).
Here are links to studies and fact-checking sites that proves it isn’t widespread (they don’t).
More rarely, and usually in the form of a link: “you are a racist”.

If you were in fact a conspiracy theorist, you might wonder briefly why these answers are so consistently structured, and how that happens.

In the 30 years I’ve been in America, I notice that the fraudulent election topic comes up from time to time. Every two years, give or take. And the following patterns are always exactly the same. Now any one of these, taken alone, proves nothing. And the sum total of them prove nothing. But they are somewhat curious, to the curious.

Republicans propose structural changes that would make fraud less likely. Democrats disagree with them. They explain that the GOP is trying to make voting too hard for blacks. They never quite explain how their argument, that blacks are incapable or unwilling to show a photo id  to vote is not in itself silly and racist. One presumes that they don’t believe it, but use it because they want to keep cheating.

Democrats never propose structural changes that would make fraud less likely.

In close elections where a republican candidate has a lead that that go into long voter counts, new ballots are always found that swing the election to the democrats.

In this election, a new patten emerged. The democrats preemptively planned for a claim of voter fraud, by asserting that the GOP would make it, and would contest the election.

Some wonder how they knew.

On the charge that no such grand conspiracy theory has been found, none would be necessary. This isn’t how these things would work, if in fact they were occurring.

Voter fraud would be highly distributed. 100,000 of thousands of people, believing they are working for an important cause, are in a position to silently move outcomes a little bit at time. All in the same direction.

The question is, “is this likely to happen?” 

Over the last 4 years, democrats have demonstrated a willingness to believe, or pretend to believe, that Trump had Russian prostitutes pee in him in a bed Obama slept on, that Russians stole the election via fb ads and that Michael Avenatti and Christine Blasey Ford were credible. They are willing to ignore obvious influence peddling by the Bidens and Clintons, but believe they heard it in a few seconds of Trump phone call with Ukraine. They are willing to believe that Trump is responsible for every Covid19 death in America. Perhaps, the world. They deny the existence of Antifa, and believe BLM are looting for justice.

This is a demographic that very much wants power over other people, and feels justified in gaining in. Because they would use this power with more wisdom and decency.

Very much so.

Mike.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

So What’s Next

Moderate centrist democrats older than 35 years old who believe that they voted for a return to a world where most politicians were reasonable adults will be disappointed. These people believe that Donald Trump is the only thing standing in the way of such a world, and that Obama was the archetype of kind, wise and fundamentally decent leader. The elitists of this group understood that Obama was condescending toward the “lower” classes, but thought they were too dumb to get the joke. While it’s tempting to be critical of these folks, I know more than a few Obama fangirls who don’t realize that he wouldn’t give them the time of day in person, for no reason other than they wouldn’t be comfortable ordering from a Thai menu.

But he was “presidential”.

This is one of two groups currently calling for a return to civility. Decorum. A time when republicans like Romney knew how to lose with grace.

These people will be disappointed. And confused. They will not figure it out.

The second group of over 35 democrats are the TDS-afflicted. These are folks for whom politics provide structure for their innate hatred of something. This group is also calling for a return to civility, primarily because they want to sweep their juvenile behavior of the last 4 years under the rug. And they will. Just like they swept their bad behavior toward Bristol Palin under the rug.

This group will not be disappointed, because either they never really believed their own nonsense or don’t have a firm grip on reality. To them, Trump was a symptom, not the cause. They will find another object to hate.

The under 35 democrats who are not just young romantics have no desire for a return to civility. To them, a vote for Biden was a sad compromise given that no one more extreme was running. They assume riots, looting and screaming about white privilege and racism is civility. The odd thing about this group is that they were created by the previous two groups, who assumed they could control them.

This looks unlikely.

Disenfranchised voters, frustrated by what they correctly perceive as a system skewed against them, will be disappointed.

People in other countries, who assume the jobs of the US president is to visit their leaders and smell each other’s farts will likely not be disappointed by Biden, but will find Harris has no time for such stuff.

Forward.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Money Talks, Talent Walks

I’ve been gone from Microsoft for about 15 months, and over that time I’ve talked to various people who still work there. Some wonder how a particular executive can run so much talent out of the company, and yet continue to be empowered in “our culture” Others, that the company has become inefficient, confused and bureaucratic. And some, that they are on a treadmill and being burned out.

What I’m about to write was knowable to me while I worked there, but I didn’t want to know it. Indeed, if your goal is to go to work every day and try to be effective and make a difference, it’s critical that you do not know it. Being paid to not know it helps.

These things are not accidents. They are not the result of management asleep at the wheel. They are by design.

Part of Satya’s strategy is to not need to build anything substantive. And by substantive, I mean Windows, Office, Exchange, SQL, Visual Studio, .NET, Xbox, Hotmail, OneDrive, Bing etc. Anyone who worked on those things knows that the company now wouldn’t have a clue what leaders to empower and how staff and drive such projects forward now. It isn’t possible to build such things at Microsoft now.

Nor is required. Or desired. Microsoft sells Office, Windows, SQL, hosted Exchange and Sharepoint to the largest companies in the world, and talks a lot about the cloud. Looking at the headcount and where they are allocated, one might conclude that the long term product pipeline is, well, thin.

This is not necessarily a bad thing. A person critical of Balmer’s leadership might conclude that he wasted many 10s of billions of dollars on product pipelines, like Windows Phone, that were never successful. And that’s with the blessing that Jerry Yang gave us by making the worst business decision in the history of business.

It’s not like Microsoft’s customers expect, ask for, or want innovation from the company. They want the things they are required to buy and use to work correctly.

Satya’s Microsoft is selling, servicing, and supporting products that were built decades ago, have huge innate value, and are extremely difficult to replace. Also, talking about the cloud. And Xbox.

Satya is a brilliant leader and CEO. He observed, correctly, that people were bored with hating “Microsoft”, but it had become a habit. He figured out that both Balmer and the old Microsoft culture, while effective at building things that lasted 25 years and changed the world, was a lightening rod for this animosity. And he saw the Woke Supertrend coming. He rebranded Microsoft as  King of Woke Tech companies – no easy task. And he reformed the heavy handed sales org.

A side effect of this is that folks who built things that lasted 25 years and changed the world found themselves in mandatory as a condition of continued employment diversity training, where they learned that they were the root of all evil in the world. They did not learn much about software at these sessions.

The exodus of talent from the company has been going on for a long time. The local area (Bellevue), has for a decade tried to capture these folks in satellite offices, but this trend is accelerating at scale. Significant amounts of office space, and real development is moving to Bellevue by most of the important players. And the startup scene here is real. Just as Microsoft did with the cancellation of Live Mesh, they are once again seeding the industry with talent. This is yet another altruistic gesture from our culture. In my observation, many folks land and do pretty well post Microsoft.

Another supertrend driven by Satya and Amy is the change from a fiscally conservative company, to an ordinary, indebted company that makes shareholders rich by transferring retained earnings, current income and future income to current shareholders, just like every single other company in the world. The primary mechanism, once the balance sheet has been depleted, is long term debt that is used to buyback shares. The balance sheet of the company looks very different than it did 10 years ago.

There’s nothing wrong with this, of course. Indeed, the shareholders and happy.

Money talks.

The bad (old) culture had good and bad qualities. On the good side, we built things that lasted 25 years and changed the world. On the bad side, there was a scary, arbitrary ruthlessness to it all that if you found yourself on the wrong side of, was, not good.

Money talked then too.

My experience with the new culture was that it could be just as ruthless, but not in an American street-fighter way. It’s a superficially caring, sophisticated, almost British ruling class culture. It’s not so good at building things that last 25 years and change the world, and if you find yourself on the wrong side of it, well, that can be not good. And it’s surprisingly easy to do, just by trying to build things that work.

The company is a now a conveyor belt of sales, service, security, support, money and keeping the online stuff running. Much daily work consists of a seemingly endless series of important, difficult but boring tasks, with 3 people asking for status for every one trying to fix things.

Microsoft supplies the platforms that run the world. This stuff has to work. Many people go to work every day and keep this stuff working. It’s a good job, and it’s honest work.

But it’s different. The company that for long fearing becoming “IBM”, is now resembles Gerstner’s IBM and Welsh’s General Electric with a little Sun Microsystems and Oracle thrown in.

BobMu got the last laugh, it seems.

Mike.

Everything in this post is publicly available information or sheer conjecture.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

The Big Words, No Oxford Commas

What is Really Going On Here?

Why the perpetual anger toward white men?

There is a real problem in America with low level offenders and the “criminal justice” system. Once you are arrested and charged, the charge hangs over your head forever. Probation hangs over your head during  job applications  and is too frequently cause for re-arrest. The system seems designed to trap and churn out criminals and ruin lives, and it does.

This goes far beyond the police. It includes lawyers, the courts, lawmakers, prosecutors, probation officers, social workers, and the Jailer Industrial Complex.

There’s reason to be angry about this, and work to change it.

Riots and murder will make it worse. That said, it’s very unclear that today’s riots and murder have anything to do with blacks, and certainly nothing to do with the welfare of blacks.

For the moment, let’s ignore 50 years of the left’s denigration of men, fathers, boys, families and marriage (i.e. the Everloving Patriarchy). Let’s ignore the constant bashing of Christians and churches, including black churches. Also, a culture of dependence on the state and defeat. Bad government schools. Gangs, guns, drugs, and the drug war. Declining opportunity for blue collar workers. The fragmentation of society into the elite, self-important coastal money-tech class, and everyone else.

Let’s also ignore the fact the system is deeply structurally biased toward those with access to massive amount of debt, cheap money, lawyers, bankers and executives. In subtle ways that are difficult to understand. The results are obvious, but the mechanisms (i.e. long term debt, share buybacks, IPOs, crooked accounting, etc.) less so. Blame in on tax rates. Ignore the fact that the government spends more money that it doesn’t have with every passing year.

And then explain it all away by accusing everyone else of racism.

One wonders how we could possibly have gotten here.

Diversity and Inclusion is a term that means gender and race based structural favoritism at hiring, firing and promotion time. The phrase Diversity and Inclusion was invented when too many people figured out that Affirmative Action is a phrase that means gender and race based structural favoritism at hiring, firing and promotion time, which itself was a replacement for the much clearer Quotas.

Indeed, if you are privy to corporate diversity programs, you will recognize the columns of Quotas (sorry, Quotas are illegal – Targets). The language of differences make us stronger is not used so much anymore, as nobody believes it in a climate of thought oppression.

But all is not well in the diverse and inclusive world.

The current wave of gender and race based structural favoritism at hiring, firing and promotion time is predicated on the theory of Intersectionality. Intersectionality is contemporary liberalism’s latest New Testament-esque grand unifying theory. It teaches that every special interest group waging constant war against while men is not as effective as a coordinated assault. And it’s not. Indeed, much ground has been gained under the umbrella. You would be hard pressed to find a government organization or large corporation not waging slow motion low grade bureaucratic war against white men, under the cover of altruism and fairness.

Consider the LGBT wing. It now seems that what gay men wanted all along was to be safe, accepted and not denied opportunity based on their orientation. And, they got it. Score one for the woke. But once achieved, they seemed less interested in being a perpetual victim/quota group. And the left got bored with them as soon as they were no longer a tool in their minds to offend Christians or a victim group.

It’s little unclear what lesbians and bisexuals wanted, but they didn’t get anything. They are lumped into the LGBT column on the corporate / government spreadsheets, which are dominated numerically by gay men. And the entire LGBT group is often mentioned, but not recruited aggressively.

Transsexuals, the latest tool of the Intersectional left, have found themselves gaining no structural advantage at hiring, firing and promotion time, but on a fast conveyer belt to the Industrial Surgical Complex. Now one might wonder if this is compassionate, well thought-out and concerned with the welfare of transsexuals, but in the current climate, one would be wise to wonder that in silence. The Contemporary Intersectional left books no dissent, no freedom of thought. How this squares with Diversity (i.e. differences) is no longer of interest.

Blacks, over the last ten years, have discovered that despite having a dedicated column in the spreadsheets, have made few gains. This is dramatically true in the tech world, where the elites are still dominated by Asian Indians and white men.

Indeed, the real action in D&I is women’s gains at the expense of white men. None of this should be surprising, as the power center of these programs has been feminists at universities and think-tanks, and this group now controls “diversity” programs in corporations and government.

It remains acceptable to publicly discriminate against non-Indian Asians, white men, and Christians, and to privately discriminate against Jews.

How this is inclusive is not explained.

As blacks find themselves either self-selecting out of the tech-moneyed elite, or excluded form it as a result of public education, or excluded from it as a result of racism, they also find that blue collar opportunities are shrinking, and they are increasingly competing with Latinos for a smaller and smaller pie slice.

Latinos are already demographically dominant, and growing increasingly more so. And they are not yet falling in line in their place in the Quilt of Intersectional Victims. If Latinos pass blacks to become yet another demographic to succeed in America, and the tech-moneyed class continues to grow, there will be hell to pay here.

Maybe we should do something different.

Treating people like people, with dignity and respect perhaps?

Mike.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

The Dreaded Second Wave

 

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Covid19 Bullshit for Dummies

Do you ever wonder how dangerous Covid19 is? If it’s getting better, or worse? If the things we’re being forced to do are helping?

Excellent places to not learn anything are the NYT, WaPo, CNN, MSNBC, FOX, The Atlantic, Slate, Rolling Stone, CBC (sorry), BBC (sorry), political campaigns, the President, The Prime Minister, Dr. Fauci, facebook, google news, Drudge, Twitter, TickTok, Grindr.

The following graphs were all generated from the same dataset (https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths). They were generated to illustrate how easy it is to use data to tell stories, also called lies.

Consider the first graph:

This is the graph I would choose if I wanted to tell a story about how badly the USA has managed the pandemic. And, if I were running for office, I would tell the story about how pathetically the folks in power – at least the ones I don’t like – managed things. If I were in power, or defending the budget of my Dept of Bureaucracy that was in some way supposed to help, I likely wouldn’t choose this graph. Perhaps, if I was attacking a competing Dept of Bureaucracy, it might be a good choice.

Certainly if I was frightened beyond belief of Covid19, I’d be angry about this one.

If I wanted to make the case that the lockdowns were necessary, and useful, I might start with a graph of the growth in “cases” (positive tests), and deaths, windowed for Mar-Apr. I would also use this to show that cases are leading, and proportional indicator of future deaths.

It’s important to note that deaths are on a different scale than cases. Hold that thought.

In Mar we didn’t have much information. We didn’t know when  the infection would stop, or why (we still don’t). We didn’t know that it isn’t deadly to a majority of people. For a worst case scenario one simply had to do a little linear extrapolation on the curves and see that

Very fortunately, the worst case is not what actually happened.

It’s important to note that deaths are on a different scale than cases. Hold that thought.

What actually happened is that cases continued to rise, roughly as predicted, but deaths no longer tracked cases.

Why? Perhaps …

  • Sending infected patients back to nursing homes was a bad idea.
  • Some demographics are highly vulnerable; many are highly resistant, and policy can be adjusted to save lives.
  • Medicine got better, and learned, quickly, how to save lives.
  • Lockdowns, The Grocery Dance, Social Masking, Karens, virgins in volcanoes, etc.
  • The virus seems to slow down dramatically long before the 60-70% immunity we have been told is God’s actual truth.

So, we don’t quite understand why, and maybe we got a bit lucky, but the news is all good.

Even this doesn’t tell the whole story. Let’s remove the scaling on deaths and place them on the same axis as cases. This gives a more accurate visualization of the danger of a positive test.

Now without the text, this graph clearly shows that cases don’t predict deaths. But with the text, it’s even more dramatic. Deaths have remained relatively constant even as the virus traveled geographically (South and West), and impacted as vastly larger population.

Finally, lets remove all scaling and look at cases, deaths, and tests.

One might conclude from this that testing cures Covid19. That is counter-intuitive, and likely asinine, but “supported by the data”.

I’ll leave it as an exercise to form an opinion about how effective the world government’s response has been.

They will do better with your colonoscopy.

Mike.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Some Concrete Covid 19 Predictions

This is a follow up to some questions about this https://mikezintel.wordpress.com/2020/09/10/covid-19-by-the-numbers-sept-2020/, some analysis of these numbers, and (rare for me) some concrete predictions.

The formula for chance of dying from an event is chance of dying, as measured, per unit of exposure (hour, mile, flight, dive) x units of exposure. Skydiving and mountain climbing are fantastically dangerous per unit of exposure, but the average the death toll is tiny because so few people do these things.

Driving is much safer, but the average probability of dying much higher to higher exposure.

The mortality rate – the chance of dying from Covid 19, over the last 8 months has been 0.06%, or 1 in 1833.

That’s 330,000,000 / 180,000. It’s not CFR, or IFR, or a model, or a prediction.

It a backward looking measurement of what actually happened.

Now 1 in 1833 is still a little scary for me. But remember, in March the experts were predicting “up to”3%, (1 in every 34 people) and policy was made based on that.

Globally, if you believe the numbers, which you shouldn’t, the probability of death is 0.013%, or 1 in 8152.

For context, in the USA, over a year, the probability of dying in

Auto accident, 0.01%, or 1 in 9805.

Flu, 0.01% or 1 in 9661 (2018-19).

Cancer, 0.19% or 1 in 551.

Heart disease, 0.2%, or 1 in 504.

Now averages over large populations have serious limitations. If you are under 20, and in classroom, your chance of dying of Covid 19 is easily less than 1/100’th the average. If you are over 75 and in a New York nursing home under Comrade Cuomo’s regime, it was even money with surviving a firing squad or the Titanic’s maiden voyage as cook.

But consider the year: masks don’t work, masks are the only thing that works, the Grocery Dance, Karen, work from home (“work” from home as I used to say), lockdowns, bankruptcies, a spike in overdoses, suicides, depression, anxiety, debt and fraud on an Old Testament scale.

Was it all worth it? Did we win? What did we win? Are we still winning?

Now, let’s get to the hard stuff. What happens next?

To answer we need to know this:

What is backward looking death rate once infected? Will it remain constant?

How many are infected? How many have recovered? How many have immunity?

How many have to acquire immunity to stop the little bastard dead in it’s tracks?

What are the patterns of spread? Do we have any control over them?

Is a safe and effective vaccine coming, or should we just fly to Russia and mainline some Putin Juice we get on the street? (I have no clue)

Committees of government experts assume the IFR (death rate once one has the disease) will remain constant, that the thing will not ever stop – it is The Terminator – until 70% are infected and recovered.

Now, we’re going to have to use some noisy PCR data, which I’ll note may be mostly noise at this point:

6,600,000 positive test results. Assume this means immunity. That’s 2% of the population. So far, 190,000 have died, and to get to the needed 70% we’ll need another 230,000,000 million people to test positive, which will kill 6,621,000 more people.

Bad news. Fauci’s line is currently in “the millions”.

Is this likely to happen?

Around the world (except in places in the geometric rise phase) we’re seeing positive tests go way up, and deaths in the absolute go down, and deaths/M go way down. What is happening? Perhaps we’re getting better at isolating the vulnerable, or better at treating it, or it’s having a harder time traveling, or it’s exhausting the supply of vulnerable and is a mild illness in everyone else, or maybe the masking et. al. is working. Perhaps the PCR is crap.

Regardless of the cause, the lethality of this thing continues to decline. Sharply. So the 6,000,000 is likely high by maybe 5,500,000 or so.

Now maybe it’s the social masking. It’s hard to prove that it isn’t. But strangely the curves in different countries, with different policies and varying levels of compliance, are nearly identical. And Sweden’s curve, having never masked, barely doing the Grocery Dance, and not closed schools, is also identical.

But maybe masking and dancing and sacrificing virgins to volcanoes works. In which case we’re on track to do it for another decade.

I have often noted the odd “stops at 35%” phenomena. First on cruise ships and navy ships. In fact, there are few populations that have reached 35% outside of small high groups, that have not seem infections fall. Not just deaths, but infections/immunity. It seems – maybe – that herd immunity, or something, stops it long before 70%.

This observation has required some leaps of math, with huge margins of error. There are lots of weak indicators that the infection has already travelled much further than positive test indicate.

But if you trust 1 PCR as positive as 1 immunity, and you believe positive rate numbers tell you if you sample is large enough, then the thing has burned out at 10% infected, or we stopped it with the virgins in volcanoes.

I don’t believe them, and think we’re somewhere in the 25% range.

But this is pulling the magic 35% lower.

So far, in writing about Covid 19, I have not made many predictions. I have observed patterns and tried to model them, and worked on various hypothesis as to what dominant variables might be, hopefully working toward a functional model of what does and does not work in practice. What I have noticed is that committees of government experts are always wrong, always in the same direction, and often by the same magnitude. Indeed, the probability of a committee of government experts being wrong is better than even money. In an odd, unexpected development, banks’ research depts have been consistently doing far better than committees of government experts, or Dr. Fauci, who we honor as a saint of science.

Predictions are dangerous, with a faulty model and noisy data. Throwing caution to the wind:

1. Sturgis will not be a super-spreader event. The death toll will be low.

2. Places that have successfully maintained full suppression will find it increasingly difficult to maintain for another year. The price to be paid will be closed boarders.

3. Places that lost control, and Sweden, that experienced exactly the same 4 month geometric spike, flat top / slow decline and then geometric decline will not see the same magnitude wave again, unless a very important dominant variable changes. A lot.

4. The dominant variables will be population density, local travel patterns, global travel in/out patterns, average age, policy around effectively protecting the vulnerable, healthcare systems.

5. Social Masking, the Grocery Dance, Authoritarian Karenism and restrictions on surfing will not be dominant variables, except if you are effectively implementing full suppression.

6. Once 1% of the population is infected, full suppression cannot be achieved outside of China.

7. Herd immunity will not require 70% infected. I’ve been predicting 35%, but now I think it might be lower.

8. Ten years from now, we will look back at this year as a bizarre synchronized cult-like global mania.

9. A random number generator, seeded with the average time of an eyeblink of 100 random people, randomized by multiple atomic level observations, will be vastly more accurate than anything Neil Ferguson says.

Or I could be wrong. About everything, and might die from an unsanitized credit card reader.

Mike.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment